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SPC Day 1 Outlook

Updates are issued at 0600 UTC, 1300 UTC, 1630 UTC, 2000 UTC, 0100 UTC - Current UTC time: Jul 16 2019 1:18 pm


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Day 2


Categorical Day 1 Outlook



000
ACUS01 KWNS 161237
SWODY1
SPC AC 161236

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0736 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2019

Valid 161300Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF MT/WY AND THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible across the northern and central
High Plains this afternoon and evening, with the primary threats
being large hail and severe wind gusts. Other strong storms will be
possible into portions of the Midwest, and also from the lower and
mid Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley.

...MT/WY into the Dakotas...
Morning water vapor imagery shows a progressive shortwave trough
moving across parts of northern NV and southern ID.  This feature
will track into western MT later today, helping to initiate
scattered thunderstorms over the higher terrain of southern MT.
Northeasterly upslope low-level flow into this region coupled with
substantial heating and steep lapse rates aloft will promote
vigorous updrafts by mid/late afternoon.  Forecast soundings also
show considerable deep-layer shear for supercell structures.  These
storms should track eastward across southeast MT and northeast WY
during the early evening and into the western Dakotas after dark. 
Very large hail will be possible in the discrete supercells, but
recent model runs are more bullish on a scenario where storms
congeal into a fast-moving bowing complex posing a risk of more
widespread damaging winds.  Therefore have add an ENH risk area to
the outlook.

...IA...
A large complex of storms is ongoing this morning over western IA. 
Model guidance and local VAD profiles suggest an area of enhanced
flow aloft associated with an embedded MCV.  Given the high theta-e
air mass ahead of this system, some consideration was given to
adding a SLGT risk for parts of IA for this afternoon.  However, due
to uncertainties regarding the early timing of the system, recent
weakening trends, and the potential for clouds limiting
destabilization, chose to maintain the ongoing MRGL risk.

...MS/OH Valleys...
A band of enhanced low/mid level winds associated with the remnants
of Barry extends from LA/MS into IN/OH.  Early visible satellite
imagery suggests that pockets of heating will contribute to
localized moderate CAPE values later today.  Small bowing structures
or transient supercells may develop with a risk of gusty/damaging
winds.

..Hart/Smith.. 07/16/2019

$$
        

Day 3

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