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SPC Day 1 Outlook

Updates are issued at 0600 UTC, 1300 UTC, 1630 UTC, 2000 UTC, 0100 UTC - Current UTC time: Jul 15 2020 7:01 pm

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Day 2

Categorical Day 1 Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 151649
SPC AC 151648

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1148 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2020

Valid 151630Z - 161200Z



Severe storms are expected this afternoon and evening across parts
of the mid Mississippi Valley, with damaging wind, large hail, and a
couple of tornadoes possible. Other severe storms are expected
across the south-central High Plains this afternoon and evening.

...Midwest including Missouri/Illinois...
A readily apparent MCV near the Kansas City area at late morning
will continue generally eastward toward southern Illinois by this
evening. Preceding convection to its east/northeast continues to
effectively reinforce a cold pool/front that will demarcate the
latitudinal extent of the primary severe risk especially across
Missouri, with warm sector dewpoints otherwise ranging from the
middle/upper 60s F in central Illinois to lower/mid 70s across
central/eastern Missouri. As cloud cover continues to thin/disperse
across the warm sector, a corridor of strong destabilization (MLCAPE
of 2500-3500 J/kg) is expected this afternoon near/south of the
outflow from south-central Missouri toward the greater Saint Louis
area/southwest Illinois. 

Thunderstorm development/intensification is still expected by around
mid-afternoon, initially across central/east-central Missouri toward
far western Illinois. Strong mid-level winds are associated with the
MCV (reference regional WSR-88D VWP data) and some enhancement of
low-level winds also exists along the southeast flank of the MCV.
This will contribute to an environment supportive of initial
supercells, and a gradual evolution of another larger storm cluster
from eastern Missouri into Illinois later this afternoon and
evening. The potential will exist for damaging winds and a couple of
tornadoes. Although mid-level lapse rates are not steep, some severe
hail may occur as well, mainly with the initial supercell modes.

...Southern High Plains...
An outflow-reinforced front has moved southward and generally
stalled across northeast/east-central New Mexico and Texas South
Plains. Low-level flow will become more easterly/upslope through the
day from northeast New Mexico into southeast Colorado, which will
again support thunderstorm development this afternoon on the Front
Range/Raton Mesa vicinity. This will include initial supercells
capable of producing large hail, given MLCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg
with steep mid-level lapse rates and effective bulk shear of 30-40
kt. Convection will likely grow upscale into an
east/southeastward-moving cluster or two capable of producing
damaging winds this evening as it persists into and across parts of
the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles.

...Southeast Wisconsin to northern Lower Michigan today...
Related to the persistent MCS/MCV across the middle Mississippi
Valley, residual cloud cover will tend to hinder surface heating and
overall destabilization this afternoon near the
southwest/northeast-oriented front across the region. Regardless,
some increase in convective coverage and intensity can be expected
this afternoon, with some potential for isolated damaging
thunderstorm wind gusts and possibly some hail, particularly if
cloud breaks materialize later today. 

...Gulf Coast including parts of LA/MS/AL and FL Panhandle...
A weak mid-level trough over the north central Gulf coast, along
with daytime heating and local sea breeze circulations, will
continue to support scattered thunderstorm development this
afternoon. Strong downburst winds may occur with the strongest
storms through the diurnal heating cycle, with localized wind damage
a possibility.

...Florida Peninsula...
A few stronger/perhaps locally severe thunderstorms could occur this
afternoon, mainly across interior/western portions of the southern
Florida Peninsula. Within a moist air mass, steep low-level lapse
rates and slightly cooler mid-level temperatures may contribute to
wet microburst potential.

..Guyer/Bentley.. 07/15/2020


Day 3

Day 4

Largly based on original scripts from Ken True: saratoga-weather.org and Rick Curly: ricksturf.com

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