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SPC Day 1 Outlook

Updates are issued at 0600 UTC, 1300 UTC, 1630 UTC, 2000 UTC, 0100 UTC - Current UTC time: Mar 22 2019 9:06 am


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Day 2


Categorical Day 1 Outlook



128 
ACUS01 KWNS 220537
SWODY1
SPC AC 220535

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1235 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2019

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across the southern High
Plains this afternoon into the early evening. Large hail and locally
severe wind gusts should be the primary threats.

...Synopsis...
Across the East, a strong coastal low will deepen off of the New
England coast today as a deep upper trough amplifies and moves
slowly eastward. Further west, a negatively tilted trough will move
into the central/southern High Plains as a shortwave ridge shifts
slowly eastward ahead of this feature, in the wake of the eastern
trough. A weak surface low is expected to develop across eastern CO
in response to the ejecting shortwave trough. 

...Southern High Plains into Southeast CO...
A surface ridge over the western Gulf of Mexico continues to impede
low-level moisture return, with dewpoints generally in the 40s-50s F
and PW values less than 1 inch across TX into most of the Gulf of
Mexico, per Thursday evening surface observations and 00Z soundings.
While this ridge will likely shift eastward during the day, there
will be little opportunity for substantive moisture return, though a
narrow tongue of modest low-level moisture will be advected from the
Rio Grande Valley into portions of the southern High Plains. Despite
the poor moisture quality, steep midlevel lapse rates and cold
temperatures aloft (-16C to -20C at 500 mb) will allow for some
destabilization to occur this afternoon, especially in areas where
some clearing is realized after early morning clouds and
precipitation. MLCAPE will likely range from around 250 J/kg across
southeastern CO to as much as 1000 J/kg across portions of west TX
by late afternoon. 

Deep-layer shear will be more than sufficient to support organized
convection as the negatively tilted shortwave ejects into the High
Plains. From the TX Panhandle northward, stronger large-scale ascent
and somewhat more meridional mid/upper-level flow will favor a
quicker transition to mixed or linear modes. Initial activity in
this region will have potential for marginally severe hail, while
some severe gust threat will evolve as upscale growth occurs. 

From the TX South Plains southward, shear vectors more orthogonal to
the dryline will conditionally favor supercells, though thunderstorm
coverage across this area is more uncertain with the strongest
large-scale ascent passing to the north. Any supercell that develops
within this regime will have the potential to produce large hail and
locally severe wind gusts. Some increase in low-level shear is
expected near and after 00Z, and a brief increase in the tornado
threat is possible with any remaining discrete cells this evening
before MLCINH increases later tonight. If confidence increases in
the development of multiple supercells across this region, then an
increase in severe probabilities may be needed in subsequent
outlooks.

..Dean/Nauslar.. 03/22/2019

$$

        

Day 3

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