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SPC Day 1 Outlook

Updates are issued at 0600 UTC, 1300 UTC, 1630 UTC, 2000 UTC, 0100 UTC - Current UTC time: Apr 8 2020 2:45 am

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Day 2

Categorical Day 1 Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 080050
SPC AC 080049

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0749 PM CDT Tue Apr 07 2020

Valid 080100Z - 081200Z


Severe thunderstorms are possible this evening through tonight
across southern portions of the Great Lakes region into the Ohio
Valley and Mid Atlantic.  The strongest storms will pose a threat
for very large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a couple of tornadoes.

...Upper Mississippi Valley/Great Lakes/Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic...
The latest water vapor imagery shows a plume of mid-level moisture
extending from the Mid Missouri Valley eastward into the southern
Great Lakes region. Thunderstorms are ongoing within this plume
along the leading edge of a band of large-scale ascent. The storms
are also located just ahead of a cold front located from eastern
Iowa extending into far southwestern Lower Michigan where a 1001 mb
low is present. Moderate instability is analyzed ahead of the front
across much of the mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys where MLCAPE is
estimated to be in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. In addition to the
instability, a 60 to 70 kt mid-level jet is analyzed by the RAP over
the western Great Lakes. This feature is helping to create strong
deep-layer shear profiles across much of the region. This is evident
on the WSR-88D VWP at Chicago which has 0-6 km shear near 55 kt with
strong speed-shear in the mid-levels.

Further south, the 00Z sounding at Lincoln, Illinois shows 50 kt of
0-6 km shear with a 700-500 mb lapse rate of 7.7 C/km. This is
sampling an elevated mixed layer which the RAP shows from eastern
Iowa extending eastward into northern Indiana and northwest Ohio.
Supercells that develop along this corridor will be capable of
producing large hail, with some hailstones greater than 2 inches in
diameter possible. Supercells and bowing line segments will also be
capable of damaging wind gusts. The greatest potential for very
large hail and more numerous damaging wind gusts is forecast to be
from southern Lower Michigan southeastward across northeast Indiana
and north-central Ohio. The RAP is also showing a low-level speed
max over southern Lake Michigan. This feature will move eastward
with time and make low-level shear strong enough for an isolated
tornado threat with the more dominant supercells.

MCS development is ongoing across the southern Great Lakes region.
This large area of storms is forecast to move east-southeastward
into the Ohio Valley and central Appalachians this evening into
tonight. A threat for large hail and wind damage will likely exist
overnight with the stronger thunderstorms within this MCS. An
isolated wind damage and hail threat may persist through late
tonight as the MCS moves into the Mid-Atlantic region.

..Broyles.. 04/08/2020


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